For the past 17 years we have relied on our in-house long-term model to help us in identifying the long-term underlying trends, and projecting the weekly closing prices needed to reverse those trends. By being able to project the weekly closes needed to reverse the underlying trends, we feel we are then able to gauge the strength of the current trend. Like all models, ours is not perfect or always correct but we find that it provides us with valuable information and helps in formulating our trading strategy. The following is a discussion of what our model indicated for a few selected commodities. If you are interested in other commodities feel free to contact us at lee@ifgfutures.com but be advised a working phone number is required.
Our trends change on Friday weekly closes, unless the weekly close is on Thursday.
WORD TO THE WISE
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the
use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.
*Latest Trend Changes **Early Warning
|
Commodity |
Long Term Trend |
Reversal Date |
Trend Reverses |
|
TREND |
CHANGES AS OF |
|
Jan. 13 |
|
*March Japanese Yen |
UP |
Jan 20 |
Below 1.2587 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Long Nov Soybeans/Short March Soybeans |
|
Jan 20 |
Below 16 ¾ |
| Long July Wheat/Short March Wheat |
|
Jan 20 |
Below 32 |
|
Long K.C. March Wheat/Short Chi. March Wheat |
|
Jan 20 |
Below 23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONTINUING |
TRENDS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GRAINS |
|
|
|
March Corn |
down |
Jan 20 |
Above $6.47 ¾ |
|
**March Soybeans |
down |
Jan 20 |
Above $11.85 ¾ |
|
**March Soybean Meal |
down |
Jan 20 |
Above $304.80 |
|
**March Soybean Oil |
up |
Jan 20 |
Below 5053 |
|
March Wheat |
down |
Jan 20 |
Above $6.46 |
|
March Rice |
down |
Jan 20 |
Above 1551.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CATTLE & HOGS |
|
|
|
Feb Hogs |
down |
Jan 20 |
Above $87.75 |
|
Feb Cattle |
down |
Jan 20 |
Above $124.07 |
|
March Feeder Cattle |
up |
Jan 20 |
Below $136.27 |
|
|
METALS |
|
|
|
March Silver |
down |
Jan 20 |
Above $34.751 |
|
February Gold |
down |
Jan 20 |
Above $1790.60 |
|
March Copper |
up |
Jan 20 |
Below $2.819 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SOFTS |
|
|
|
March Coffee |
down |
Jan 20 |
Above $237.30 |
|
March Cocoa |
down |
Jan 20 |
Above 2559 |
|
March Sugar |
down |
Jan 20 |
Above 2500 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ENERGIES |
|
|
|
**March Crude Oil |
up |
Jan 20 |
Below $98.63 |
|
March Nat Gas |
down |
Jan 20 |
Above $3.807 |
|
March Reform Gas |
up |
Jan 20 |
Below $2.5642 |
|
March Heating Oil |
up |
Jan 20 |
Below $2.7.921 |
|
|
E-MINI S&P |
|
|
|
March E-Mini S&P |
up |
Jan 20 |
Below 1187 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
CURRENCIES |
|
|
|
|
March Aussie Dollar |
up |
Jan 20 |
Below .9110 |
|
March British Pound |
down |
Jan 20 |
Above 1.6042 |
|
**March Canadian Dollar |
down |
Jan 20 |
Above .9852 |
|
March U.S. Dollar |
up |
Jan 20 |
Below 77.551 |
|
March Euro Currency |
down |
Jan 20 |
Above 1.3754 |
|
March Swiss Franc |
down |
Jan 20 |
Above 1.1125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SPREADS |
|
|
| *Long March Corn/short Dec Corn |
|
Jan 20 |
Below 33 ¾ |
|
Long March Corn/Short March S’beans |
|
Jan 20 |
Above 5.78 ¼ |
| **Long Nov S’beans/Short Dec 12 Corn |
|
JAN 20 |
Below $5.93 ½ |
|
Long March Soybeans/Short March Cotton |
|
Jan 20 |
Above 86.11 |
|
**Long July Soybeans/Short November Soybeans |
|
Jan 20 |
Below 10 |
|
Long March Wheat/Short March Corn |
|
Jan 20 |
Below -16 |
|
Long July Hogs/Short April Hogs |
|
Jan 20 |
Above -535 |
|
Long Oct Hogs/Short June Hogs |
|
Jan 20 |
Above 1390 |
|
Long Feb Cattle/Short Feb Hogs |
|
Jan 20 |
Below 3499 |