INTERNATIONAL FUTURES GROUP
TRENDS AND REVERSALS
2012-02-05
For the past 17 years we have relied on our in-house long-term model to help us in identifying the long-term underlying trends, and projecting the weekly closing prices needed to reverse those trends. By being able to project the weekly closes needed to reverse the underlying trends, we feel we are then able to gauge the strength of the current trend. Like all models, ours is not perfect or always correct but we find that it provides us with valuable information and helps in formulating our trading strategy. The following is a discussion of what our model indicated for a few selected commodities. If you are interested in other commodities feel free to contact us at lee@ifgfutures.com but be advised a working phone number is required.
Our trends change on Friday weekly closes, unless the weekly close is on Thursday.
WORD TO THE WISE
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the
use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.
*Latest Trend Changes
**Early Warning
|
Commodity |
Long Term Trend |
Reversal Date |
Trend Reverses |
|
TREND |
CHANGES |
AS OF |
Feb 3., 2012 |
| *March Corn |
up |
Feb 10 |
Below $5.95 ¼ |
|
|
|
|
|
| *Long Nov S’beans/Short March S’beans |
|
Feb 10 |
Above 36 |
| *Long Nov S’beans/Short July S’beans |
|
Feb 10 |
Above 42 ½ |
|
|
|
|
|
| *March British Pound |
up |
Feb 10 |
Below 1.4945 |
| *March U.S. Dollar |
down |
Feb 10 |
Above 86.061 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONTINUING |
TRENDS |
|
|
|
GRAINS |
|
|
|
March Soybeans |
up |
Feb 10 |
Below $11.46 ¼ |
|
March Soybean Meal |
up |
Feb 10 |
Below $292.00 |
|
March Soybean Oil |
down |
Feb 10 |
Above .5386 |
|
March Rice |
down |
Feb 10 |
Above 1500.50 |
|
March Wheat |
up |
Feb 10 |
Below $6.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CATTLE & HOGS |
|
|
|
**April Cattle |
up |
Feb 10 |
Below $126.90 |
|
April Hogs |
down |
Feb 10 |
Above $92.02 |
|
March Feeder Cattle |
up |
Feb 10 |
Below $149.25 |
|
|
METALS |
|
|
|
March Copper |
up |
Feb 10 |
Below $3.1215 |
|
March Silver |
up |
Feb 10 |
Below $23.658 |
|
April Gold |
up |
Feb 10 |
Below $1467.30 |
|
|
SOFTS |
|
|
|
March Coffee |
down |
Feb 10 |
Above $231.95 |
|
March Cocoa |
down |
Feb 10 |
Above 2423 |
|
March Sugar |
up |
Feb 10 |
Below 2246 |
|
|
ENERGIES |
|
|
|
March Crude Oil |
down |
Feb 10 |
Above $105.18 |
|
March Nat Gas |
down |
Feb 10 |
Above $3.621 |
|
March Reform Gas |
up |
Feb 10 |
Below $2.5817 |
|
March Heating Oil |
up |
Feb 10 |
Below 2.9471 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
E-MINI S&P |
|
|
|
March E-Mini S&P |
up |
Feb 10 |
Below 1237.50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
CURRENCIES |
|
|
|
|
March Aussie Dollar |
up |
Feb 10 |
Below .9603 |
|
March Euro Currency |
down |
Feb 10 |
Above 1.3444 |
|
March Japanese Yen |
up |
Feb 10 |
Below 1.2525 |
|
March Canadian Dollar |
up |
Feb 10 |
Below .9655 |
|
March Swiss Franc |
up |
Feb 10 |
Below 1.0312 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
SPREADS |
|
|
| Long March Corn/short Dec Corn |
|
Feb 10 |
Below 42 |
| Long Nov S’beans/Short Dec 12 Corn |
|
Feb 10 |
Below $6.22 ½ |
|
|
|
|
|
| Long March Cotton/Short March Soybeans |
|
Feb 10 |
Below 78.63 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Long March Wheat/Short March Corn |
|
Feb 10 |
Below -1 |
| Long March Wheat/Short July Wheat |
|
Feb 10 |
Below -37 |
| Long July Wheat/Short Dec Wheat |
|
Feb 10 |
Below -42 |
| Long K.C. March Wheat/Short Chi. March Wheat |
|
Feb 10 |
Below 32 ¼ |
|
|
|
|
|
| Long July Hogs/Short April Hogs |
|
Feb 10 |
Above -542 |
| Long Oct Hogs/Short June Hogs |
|
Feb 10 |
Above 1362 |
| Long April Cattle/Short April Hogs |
|
Feb 10 |
Below 3487 |
|
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