INTERNATIONAL FUTURES GROUP
TRENDS AND REVERSALS
2012-01-22
For the past 17 years we have relied on our in-house long-term model to help us in identifying the long-term underlying trends, and projecting the weekly closing prices needed to reverse those trends. By being able to project the weekly closes needed to reverse the underlying trends, we feel we are then able to gauge the strength of the current trend. Like all models, ours is not perfect or always correct but we find that it provides us with valuable information and helps in formulating our trading strategy. The following is a discussion of what our model indicated for a few selected commodities. If you are interested in other commodities feel free to contact us at lee@ifgfutures.com but be advised a working phone number is required.
Our trends change on Friday weekly closes, unless the weekly close is on Thursday.
WORD TO THE WISE
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the
use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.
*Latest Trend Changes **Early Warning
|
Commodity |
Long Term Trend |
Reversal Date |
Trend Reverses |
|
TREND |
CHANGES |
AS OF |
Jan. 20 |
|
*March Soybeans |
up |
Jan 27 |
Below $11.78 ¼ |
|
*March Soybean Meal |
up |
Jan 27 |
Below $303.60 |
|
*March Soybean Oil |
down |
Jan 27 |
Below 5388 |
|
*March Crude Oil |
down |
Jan 27 |
Above $102.35 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Long March Soybeans/Short Nov Soybeans |
|
Jan 27 |
Below -13 |
|
*Long March Soybeans/Short March Cotton |
|
Jan 27 |
Below 68.95 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Feb Cattle |
up |
Jan 27 |
Below $118.55 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONTINUING |
TRENDS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GRAINS |
|
|
|
March Corn |
down |
Jan 27 |
Above $6.52 |
|
March Wheat |
down |
Jan 27 |
Above $6.23 ½ |
|
March Rice |
down |
Jan 27 |
Above 1496.5 |
|
|
CATTLE & HOGS |
|
|
|
Feb Hogs |
down |
Jan 27 |
Above $90.75 |
|
March Feeder Cattle |
up |
Jan 27 |
Below $146.60 |
|
|
METALS |
|
|
|
March Silver |
down |
Jan 27 |
Above $32.489 |
|
February Gold |
down |
Jan 27 |
Above $1727.90 |
|
March Copper |
up |
Jan 27 |
Below $2.9935 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SOFTS |
|
|
|
March Coffee |
down |
Jan 27 |
Above $238.85 |
|
March Cocoa |
down |
Jan 27 |
Above 2458 |
|
**March Sugar |
down |
Jan 27 |
Above 2397 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ENERGIES |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March Nat Gas |
down |
Jan 27 |
Above $3.501 |
|
March Reform Gas |
up |
Jan 27 |
Below $2.5185 |
|
March Heating Oil |
up |
Jan 27 |
Below $2.9297 |
|
|
E-MINI S&P |
|
|
|
March E-Mini S&P |
up |
Jan 27 |
Below 1187 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
CURRENCIES |
|
|
|
|
March Aussie Dollar |
up |
Jan 27 |
Below .9875 |
|
March British Pound |
down |
Jan 27 |
Above 1.5766 |
|
**March Canadian Dollar |
down |
Jan 27 |
Above .9717 |
|
March U.S. Dollar |
up |
Jan 27 |
Below 78.625 |
|
March Euro Currency |
down |
Jan 27 |
Above 1.3526 |
|
March Swiss Franc |
down |
Jan 27 |
Above 1.0926 |
|
*March Japanese Yen |
up |
Jan 27 |
Below 1.2676 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SPREADS |
|
|
| *Long March Corn/short Dec Corn |
|
Jan 27 |
Below 30 ½ |
|
|
|
|
|
| **Long Nov S’beans/Short Dec 12 Corn |
|
Jan 27 |
Below $6.22 ½ |
|
Long July Soybeans/Short November Soybeans |
|
Jan 27 |
Below 9 ¾ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Long March Wheat/Short March Corn |
|
Jan 27 |
Below -28 ½ |
|
Long K.C. March Wheat/Short Chi. March Wheat |
|
Jan 27 |
Below 31 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Long July Hogs/Short April Hogs |
|
Jan 27 |
Above -535 |
|
Long Oct Hogs/Short June Hogs |
|
Jan 27 |
Above 1445 |
|
Long Feb Cattle/Short Feb Hogs |
|
Jan 27 |
Below 3080 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|