March Corn closed 1 cent higher ($3.70 ¾), July 1 ½ cents higher ($3.87 ½) & Dec 1 ¾ cents higher ($3.98 ½)
March Chgo Ethanol closed $0.013 cents a gallon higher ($1.327) & April $0.016 cents higher ($1.345)
Average Trade Estimates for USDA Outlook Forum – Corn 2019/20 – 91.512 million planted acres – Yield 177.1 bpa – Production 14.882 billion bu. – Ending Stocks – 1.792 billion bu.
It was a two-sided trade for the corn market on Wednesday. Strength came from the White House suggesting possible corn deals with China. Some short covering was noted ahead of the USDA Outlook Forum that starts tomorrow and runs through Friday. At the Forum the USDA will give us their initial look at this year’s acreage along with Supply-Demand tables. Adding to the short covering will be Friday’s catch-up on Weekly Export Sales. They will lump together the past 6 weeks of sales into one announcement. The size of that number could go far in determining new short term direction. The mid-morning weakness was spillover selling from the continued carnage in the wheat market.
Corn processors continue to show the best basis. River basis is easing suggesting some easing to the recent transportation problems. The midday posting at the Gulf showed some easing as well. Corn spreads eased on Wednesday; March/May came within a ¼ cent of its contract low, March/July pumped out a new contract low at 17 cents under and July/Dec traded down to 11 ¾ under a level not seen since mid-September. So here you have it – the trade wants to talk about potential business while the spreads are advertising we have the product to meet that business and then some.
In the short term (next couple of days) we may be looking at some consolidation ahead of the USDA’s Outlook Forum as well as Friday’s catch-up on weekly export sales. The long term price outlook still suggests we’re in a broad trading range affair while the interim look suggests a downside bias.
Daily Support & Resistance for 02/21
Mch Corn: $3.69 – $3.75 July Corn: $3.86 – $3.92
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