March Corn closed 1 cents higher ($3.65), July 1 ¾ cents higher ($3.83 ¼) & Dec 1 ¾ cents higher ($3.95 ½)
March Chgo Ethanol closed $0.004 cents a gallon higher ($1.342) & April $0.005 cents lower ($1.352)
USDA announces 100.5 K T. old crop corn sold to Colombia
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 865.6 K T. vs. 750-950 K T. expected – Year-to-date 25.798 M T. vs. 18.976 M T. year ago
Speculative short covering sets the tone Sunday night, Monday. Renewed optimism that the US and China are close to making a deal involving the ongoing trade disputes buoys prices in the early going Monday. Late Friday the US president asked China to lift their tariffs on US goods. Couple this rhetoric with the interim technical reversal we saw on Friday had recent specs that are short the market covering. Weekly export inspections were not of the market making variety. The bottom line – specs that were too short respond to renewed wishing and hoping for better business down the road.
Interior cash corn markets have taken on a mixed look. As locations roll from a March basis to a May basis I see tightening as well as widening. Processors still show the best basis. The Gulf market eases from the strength seen last week. I’m told freight eases just a touch. Going forward river logistics will continue to dictate basis direction. Looking at current March forecasts it is my opinion it will not be an easy spring. Corn spreads, May forward, ran steady with the current crop year and fractionally better vs. the new crop. I have to think this was mostly in response to the flat price short covering.
Friday’s trade registered a technical reversal for the recent sharp sell-off. Ideas are the spec trade just got too short. From Friday’s low to today’s high registered a 11 ¾ cents rally. Despite this the market has yet to test the suspected resistance, $3.80 to $3.85. So far the wishing and hoping for better business is not enough to bridge this resistance level (just my opinion).
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/05
July Corn: $3.79 – $3.88 Dec Corn: $3.91 – $4.00
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.