Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 2 ½ cents lower ($3.23 ¼), Sept 2 ¾ cents lower ($3. 27 ¼) & Dec 3 cents lower ($3.35 ¾)

June Chgo Ethanol closed $0.010 cents per gallon lower ($1.160), July $0.010 cents higher ($1.148)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.128 M T. vs. 800 K – 1.200 M T. expected

USDA reports 93% of the intended US corn crop has been planted vs. 94% expected vs. 89% 5-year average

USDA reports the US corn crop is now rated 74% GE (+4%) vs. 71% GE expected vs. NA year ago

The Sunday night corn trade started out steady to firm. The Monday day session started out noticeably lower. The session finished with modestly lower prices. The firm trade Sunday night was in response to the US administration not striking out against China for their recent involvement in Hong Kong. The lower prices came from China telling their state-owned entities not to buy any US corn because of the sanctions the US is imposing against Hong Kong. Prices were able to bounce off of the early lows in response to near record short positions held by the speculative sector as well as a bounce in the rest of the Ag sector. The continued lower US Dollar lent support. Weekly export inspections were well within the range of expectations, a solid looking number.

Interior Midwestern basis locations run steady to higher. Most of the higher basis quotes came from river locations and Toledo noticeably 9 cents higher. The Gulf basis for corn continues to be relatively quiet. Spreads saw old crop corn gaining fractionally on the new crop.

Flat price old crop corn remains in a well defined channel that shows a sideways to very slightly higher drift. Export demand remains solid and ethanol demand is trying to come back. New crop conditions, albeit early in the growing season, appear conducive to a substantial crop. The spec sector remains a substantial short. As of this writing I’m not sure what’s out there to prompt a sustaining rally. Put a gun to my head and I’ll say the grind lower could easily resume.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/02

July Corn: $3.20 – $3.28

Dec Corn $3.32 ½ – $3.40 ½

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.