Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 6 ¼ cents lower ($3.27 ½), Sept 5 ¼ cents lower ($3.33) & Dec 4 ¼ cents lower ($3.43 ¼)

July Chgo Ethanol closed $0.005 cents a gallon lower ($1.24), August $0.026 cents higher ($1.200)

2019/20 Brazil Corn Production (CONAB) – 100.9 M T. (25.4+74.2) vs. 102.3 M T. (25.2+75.9) last month vs. 101.0 M T. USDA

It was an ugly day for the corn futures with absolutely no help from the continued decline in the US Dollar. Current crop conditions coupled with what appears to be non-threatening forecasts at this time weighed on the market. It looks like the war between oil refiners and ethanol groups is heating up as fears that the EPA will grant more waivers to bypass mandated blending requirements. At one point today Chgo ethanol futures were down as much as 5-7 cents per gallon. Adding to all of this is the idea the USDA Supply-Demand update on Thursday will not give the bulls anything to hang their hats as old crop ending stocks are expected to increase as are the new crop ending stocks.

Interior Midwest corn basis levels run steady to easier on the day. Locations that are easier are on the interior rivers. The gulf basis at its midday posting appears to be easier as well. Needless to say corn spreads were under noticeable pressure from not only the flat price selling but from the index fund rolling as well.

Flat price charts honor the suspected overhead resistance. Flat price still has a ways to go before the 5 week old sideways to higher drift is negated. July corn will look pretty ugly with closes below $3.20. The same can be said if December corn closes below $3.35.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/10

July Corn: $3.24 – $3.31

Dec Corn $3.39 – $3.45

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.