Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 1 ¼ cents lower ($3.26 ¼), Sept 1 ¼ cents lower ($3.31 ¾) & Dec 1 ¾ cents lower ($3.41 ½)

July Chgo Ethanol closed unchanged ($1.240), August unchanged ($1.200)

Weekly Ethanol Grind – Production – 837 K bpd vs. 765 K week ago – Stocks – 21.8 million bbls vs. 22.5 million week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 500-800 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-300 K T. expected

The day’s lows were set relatively early in the session. The continued rebound in the ethanol sector was responsible for getting the market off of its lows. Unfortunately it was not enough to get prices on the plus side. The balance of the day was spent at fractionally lower levels. The continued decline in the US Dollar had little impact. Growing conditions are considered to be quite good. Forecasts are showing a slightly dry bias but we would need to see an extension of that before the shorts get nervous. Tomorrow’s USDA Supply-Demand update is not expected to offer anything the bulls can hang their hats on.

The interior corn basis appears to be stabilizing after some recent weakness. The gulf midday posting is mixed as bids are unchanged while offers are a touch better. Corn spreads rebounded some after recent weakness. The lower US dollar helps out the old crop as does the continued rebound in the ethanol sector while good crop conditions weigh on the new crop.

Despite the recent two days of selling the old crop corn market is maintaining its sideways to slightly higher channel. New crop corn has a similar appearance. The highs we saw on Monday for both old and new crop represent the low end of what I’ll significant resistance. To get the market to resume the upwards momentum I think we’ll need better exports as well as a crop scare. Until then its called chop, chop, chop.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/11

July Corn: $3.20 – $3.31

Dec Corn $3.35 – $3.45

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