Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 1 ¼ cents higher ($3.30 ¼), Sept ¾ cent higher ($3.35) & Dec unchanged ($3.42 ¾)

July Chgo Ethanol closed $0.047 cents a gallon higher ($1.247), August $0.035 higher ($1.215)

Weekly Ethanol Grind – 841 K bpd vs. 837 K bpd week ago – Stocks – 21.3 million bbls vs. 21.8 million week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 450-850 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-300 K T. expected

On Tuesday the corn market went home with an ominous look. Wednesday’s price action turned that around a bit finishing with a positive look. Old crop reasserts itself on Wednesday with some Chinese rumors suggesting they may be interested is some US ethanol. New crop corn remains torn between the current heat and dryness in many parts of the Corn Belt vs. forecasts suggesting that scenario will turn as early as the next couple of days into the early part of next week depending on where you are in the area. The latest ethanol grind report shows a continuation of an improving grind and lower stocks although at a slower rate vs. previous weeks.

It looks like the folks in Ohio need some corn as Cinci is showing a 10 cent improvement and Toledo up 5 cents. Basis levels elsewhere are mostly unchanged but with a firm looking undertone. The Gulf shows some minor improvement with its midday update. Old crop corn gains on the new crop while new crop spreads ran unchanged.

The sideways to higher channel for flat price corn stays intact. I still think one of the more supportive issues for the corn market is the excessive number of speculative shorts. Now that doesn’t make a market bullish but it does take some of the heat off of the market when it tries to break down. For the near term I’ll call today’s low as the new downside pivot while yesterday’s high is the upside pivot.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/18

July Corn: $3.27 – $3.35 (?)

Dec Corn $3.40 – $3.47

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