Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 4 ¼ cents lower ($3.28 ¼), Sept 4 ¼ cents lower ($3.33) & Dec 3 ½ cents lower ($3.41 ¾)

July Chgo Ethanol closed $0.020 cents a gallon lower ($1.260), August $0.017 higher ($1.220)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.295 M T. vs. 950 K – 1.250 M T. expected

USDA says US corn crop now rated 72% GE (+1%) vs. 70% expected vs. 56% year ago – Silking – 2% vs. 2% 5-year average

Flat price corn sells off from the idea that a good part of the Corn Belt received beneficial moisture over the weekend. Adding to the day’s sell-off is the idea that forecasts for this week will have additional moisture and moderating temperatures. Weekly corn export inspections were solid at the top end of expectations. Unfortunately they were not given a second look. As we move forward weather considerations coupled with next Tuesday’s USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks will dictate direction. From time to time we’ll hear of Chinese interest but as of this writing all it has been is just chatter. I think for the trade to believe Chinese interest we’ll have to see some actual buying.

Today’s Midwest corn basis runs unchanged with values we saw in the latter part of last week. The trend of the interior basis remains firm. The Gulf market stays firm in line last Friday’s posting. Corn spreads ran flat upfront while old crop loses to the new crop. Old crop losing to the new crop reflects the idea that today’s selling was mostly upfront. In addition to next Tuesday’s USDA reports it is also 1st Notice Day against the July contract.

For the last number of days I’ve talked about flat price corn being in a well-defined sideway to higher channel. This holds true despite today’s sell-off. Given the last two week’s of price action closes below the $3.25-$3.24 level (July) should attract further selling. A similar selling point for December corn is a close below $3.39-$3.38.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/23

July Corn: $3.24 – $3.32 ½  

Dec Corn $3.38 – $3.45 ½  

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