Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 3 ¼ cents lower ($3.25), Sept 4 cents lower ($3.29) & Dec 5 cents lower ($3.36 ¾)

July Chgo Ethanol closed $0.020 cents a gallon lower ($1.240), August $0.020 lower ($1.200)

Errant remarks from a WH advisor regarding the Chinese trade agreement set the day’s low relatively early in the Monday night session. This remark was quickly recanted but the damage had been done. Attempts to retrace failed to offset the break as the best futures could do was rally back to resistance levels that were established when futures’ prices went though last week’s lows. The only positive to today’s trade was the bull spreading, old crop vs. new crop. The bull spreading was a combination of factors – first notice day next Tuesday for the old crop and the idea that recent weather and short term forecasts are establishing the new crop. Unless we see a dramatic turn in the current beneficial weather or a dramatic uptick in exports it will be tough to see a turn around back to the upside. Besides the aforementioned the only remaining wild cards that could turn things around are the USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks report scheduled for next Tuesday.

Chart Talk – in recent days I’ve talked about the corn market being in a well-defined sideways to higher channel. July corn’s low of the day violates the support line of the channel but closes right on that support line. Dec corn challenges the support line of its channel but manages to close inside of the channel. I will suggest that an interim sell signal has been registered for the new crop with today’s close below the recent two weeks of trade.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/24

July Corn: $3.20 – $3.28  

Dec Corn $3.33- $3.39  

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.