Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 4 cents higher ($3.46 ½), Sept 3 cents higher ($3.46 ½) & Dec 2 ¾ cents higher ($3.56 ¼)

July Chgo Ethanol expired unchanged ($1.310), August closed $0.024 cents a gallon higher ($1.319)

USDA announces 204 K T. new crop corn sold to China – 183 K T. of corn sold to Mexico (122 K T. 20/21 & 61 K T. 21/22)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 962.4 K T. vs. 1.050-1.350 M T. expected

USDA says US Corn Crop now rated 71% GE (-2%) vs. 72% expected vs. 57% year ago – Silking – 10% vs. 16% 5-year average

The day’s highs were made Sunday night – the day’s lows were made during the day session. The majority of the day session was spent backing and filling part of the nighttime rally. Weekly export inspections were a bit below expectations. The new crop corn sales were nice to see especially since we had some announced on Thursday – the 2-day total to China was 406 K T. Going forward the majority of the trade’s focus will be on the weather and its impact on the corn plant’s reproductive cycle. The recent warmth and dryness was mostly responsible for today higher prices. Forecasts suggest a good portion of the Corn Belt will continue to see a warm and dry bias for the next few days and then a chance of moisture late in the week and some moderating temps late in the weekend. According to some forecasters bigger heat and dryness will once again take place by early next week.

Interior cash corn markets (basis) have taken on a mixed look. Last week’s rally did prompt some movement and that has some locations backing off on their basis. Other locations did not see that movement so their basis levels show a firm tone. The gulf is steady at midday with last week’s posting. A continued lack of deliveries against the July contract has corn spreads showing a modest bullish bias.

Flat price corn charts have moved into a minor consolidation mode at their recent upper end. Weather/forecasts will dictate our direction for the next couple weeks or so. Threats of hot & dry will keep the market firm as the spec still remains a sizable short despite his short covering from last week.

Daily Support & Resistance – 7/07

Sept Corn: $3.40 – $3.55 ($3.60)  

Dec Corn $3.50 – $3.65 ($3.70)  

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