Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 1 ½ cents lower ($3.45), Sept 3 cents lower ($3.43 ½) & Dec 3 ¾ cents lower ($3.52 ½)

August Chgo Ethanol closed $0.026 cents a gallon higher ($1.345), Sept $0.026 cents higher ($1.335)

Flat price is under pressure as the focus has moved to the short term forecasts calling for beneficial moisture and moderating temps by week’s end. This system will hit the western Corn Belt as early as Thursday night and traverse east through the weekend. Next week’s forecasts call for temps to warm back up and as of this writing moisture remains questionable meaning some have it some don’t. On Friday the USDA will update supply-demand using the new acres as well as factoring in the Quarterly Stocks figure. The average crop size guesstimate is at 15.041 billion bu. (15.995 in June) while the projected carryout for new crop is at 2.683 billion bu. (3.323 in June). Despite the noticeable drawdowns vs. what we saw in June these new projections still suggest more than ample product. For what it is worth the old crop corn carryout is slated to increase by 174 million bu. due to the higher than expected Quarterly Stocks figure. AS far as I’m concerned we may trade these numbers for about 5 minutes (if that long) then we’ll go back to discussing the weather.

So – was our summer rally just a 3-day event? If the estimated data for Friday’s USDA event is anywhere close to being an actuality it won’t substantiate higher prices. If we are gong to see the corn market extend the rally that started last week we will have to see additional crop threatening weather. Without a further weather scare this year’s summer rally was just a 3-day event. Halfway back of the recent rally is roughly $3.42 (Dec). For the time being $3.60 should act as resistance for the next few days

Daily Support & Resistance – 7/08

Sept Corn: $3.37 – $3.51  

Dec Corn $3.46 – $3.60  

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