Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed ¼ cent higher ($3.26 ¼), Dec ¼ cent higher ($3.34) & March unchanged ($3.44 ½)

August Chgo Ethanol closed $0.028 cents a gallon lower ($1.205), Sept $0.028 cents higher ($1.170)

USDA announces 132 K  T. of new crop corn sold to China

Weekly Ethanol Grind – July 10th – 931 K bpd vs. 914 K week ago – Stocks – 20.6 million bbls vs. 20.6 million week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 600 K – 1.300 M T. expected – new crop vs. 900 K – 1.600 M T. expected

Flat price corn continues to struggle (despite the recent Chinese buying) as beneficial rain moves through Iowa and Missouri hitting some of the dry areas of concern. Now that rain is moving into Illinois. I know Indiana and Ohio would appreciate some of this rainfall. After this rain event moves through heat is expected to rebuild into the weekend, early next week. Forecasters suggest pop-up rain events will accompany this next round of heat. So far the idea is that a potential increase in yield (have to think recent rain events are helping the crop potential) come August will more than offset the recent Chinese buying.  Ethanol prices continue to move lower. Weekly export sales are expected to be large tomorrow morning given the recent Chinese buying. All I can say is that that better be or a new round of new lows for the current down move can be expected.

The interior Midwestern corn basis has a mixed look to it; some locations a bit better while others a bit easier. I’m not seeing much happening with the Gulf basis as it is just a touch better. Corn spreads ran mostly steady with only fractional changes being seen.

I’ve been thinking that $3.30 – $3.25 (December) is make it or break it support. We tested that level earlier today. I think strength in the wheat market allowed that level to hold. The problem is that the corn market has gone on the receiving end (short side) of the inter-market grain spreads. Nothing in the price action suggests corn prices are ready to turn back higher. We have to remember that corn prices have only been breaking for 4 days which is not a big deal. If something does come along to rally prices the mid-$3.40’s represents formidable resistance.

Daily Support & Resistance – 7/16

Sept Corn: $3.20 – $3.30  

Dec Corn $3.28 – $3.38  

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.