Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 4 ¾ cents higher ($3.27 ½), Dec 4 cents higher ($3.34 ¾) & March 3 ¼ cents higher ($3.44 ¾)

August Chgo Ethanol closed $0.083 cents a gallon higher ($1.190), Sept $0.083 cents higher ($1.163)

Weekly Ethanol Grind – Week ending July 17th – 908 K bpd vs. 931 week ago – Stocks – 19.8 million bbls vs. 20.6 million week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 400 K – 1.000 M T. expected – new crop vs.1.500-3.000 M T. expected

Technical buying (Dec corn holding $3.30), a continued lower US Dollar, and anticipation of big time weekly export sales has corn futures bumping higher on Wednesday. It seems the MO for corn trading in recent weeks has been to focus on supply for the first part of the week and then focus on demand for the second half of the week. Weather for the most part continues to be non-threatening for a good portion of the Corn Belt. Yes, there always some areas that either missed out of recent rainfall or may be too wet but so far these areas this year appear to be in the minority.

Interior Midwestern cash corn markets have taken on a mixed look. Processor basis levels appear to be steady to easier, river locations that are open for business appear to be a bit easier while the ethanol guys appear to be bidding for corn. The Gulf basis for both old crop and new crop corn is strong. Corn spreads had a tightening bias all the way to Sept ’21.

The Dec corn chart has moved into a holding phase against the $3.30 level. For the time being it’s the prospect of a more than ample supply vs. developing demand. The other day I wrote about China recent selling 32 M T. of old crop out of their reserves. You know that will be replaced but from whom and how soon remains to be seen. I’m thinking flat price corn may tread water for a while as we draw closer the August 12th production report. The gap at $3.44 remains our initial resistance.

Daily Support & Resistance – 7/23

Sept Corn: $3.24 – $3.32  

Dec Corn $3.32 – $3.39  

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.