Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 4 ½ cents lower ($3.15 ½), Dec 3 ¾ cents lower ($3.26 ¼) & March 3 cents lower ($3.38 ¼)

August Chgo Ethanol closed $0.030 cents a gallon lower ($1.170), Sept $0.080 lower ($1.110)

Weekly Ethanol Grind – July 24th – 958 K bpd vs. 908 last week – Stocks – 20.3 million bbls vs. 19.8 million last week

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-550 K T. expected – new crop vs. 400 K – 1.000 M T. expected

Flat price corn continues to ratchet lower propelled by the idea of higher yields if not much higher yields. Current weather as well as forecasts suggest the crop will fill out in fine shape. Ideas are that the higher yield will not be offset by possibly better demand. A great example of this was today’s ethanol grind – its improving but it wasn’t given a second look. Many feel Chinese demand will improve but not enough to offset the idea of a much larger crop. One would think the cascading lower US Dollar would attract better export interest but that is being offset by the larger crop size. Given the current trend potential importers appear to be waiting for yet lower prices (can’t blame them).

The interior Midwestern basis if not steady is lower. The Gulf eases a bit as well. The September contract is the leader on the downside suggesting we are seeing old crop corn moving. That has always been the thought once pollination was deemed successful.

Charts are ugly looking – need I say anything more? The Sept contract is on the verge of pumping out new contract lows. Today’s close in the Sept was a new contact low close. Nothing friendly about that. The contract low for Dec corn is $3.22 and the contract low close is $3.25 ¼. I have to think these levels will be given a severe test if not falling by the wayside.

Daily Support & Resistance – 7/30

Sept Corn: ??? – $3.20  

Dec Corn $3.22 – $3.30  

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