Sept Corn closed 1 ½ cents higher ($3.17 ½), Dec 1 ½ cents higher ($3.28 ½) & March 2 cents higher ($3.40 ¼)
August Chgo Ethanol closed unchanged ($1.170), Sept unchanged ($1.110)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 716.1 K T. vs. 700 K – 1.150 M T. expected
Weekly Corn Crop Ratings – 72% GE (unch) vs. 72% expected vs. 57% year ago – Silking – 92% vs. 87% 5-year average – Dough Stage – 39% vs. 33% 5-year average
Flat price corn appears dead in the water for the near term. Weekly export inspections were nothing to write home about vs. trade expectations. As we move forward this week the trade will be deciding yield prospects vs. demand prospects for the upcoming August 12th production report from the USDA. My opinion is we will see a noticeable hike in yield and not enough of a demand increase to offset. The only bright side to this is I don’t think the projected carryout will eclipse the 3.0 billion bu. market.
Of the 11 interior corn basis locations that I track 4 are lower, 2 are higher and remaining 5 unchanged. The Gulf corn basis bumps a bit higher following last week’s noticeable sell-off. I have to think we are seeing some old crop move as the producer is realizing a successful pollination of his new crop. The Sept/Dec spread runs unchanged but lose to March and May while March and May gain on its forward contracts.
We all know the spec trade is a sizable short in corn. Without knowing crop size and demand data I get the idea the corn market will sit until we see that data on the 12th. We may see some short covering between now and then especially if we see additional exports to China. It’s seems if we want to see lower prices we may have to bounce higher first.
Daily Support & Resistance – 8/04
Sept Corn: $3.14 – $3.21
Dec Corn $3.25 – $3.32
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