Corn Commentary

storck

Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 6 ½ cents higher ($3.31), Dec 6 ¾ cents higher ($3.44 ¾) & March 7 ½ cents higher ($3.56 ¾)

Sept Chgo Ethanol closed $0.030 cents a gallon higher ($1.310), Oct $0.030 higher ($1.309)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.036 M T. vs. 800 K – 1.100 M T. expected

US Corn Crop Ratings – 69% GE (-2%) vs. 68% expected vs. 56% year ago – Dough Stage – 78% vs. 69% 5-year average – Dented – 23% vs. 24% 5-year average

With the exception of Iowa corn ratings being down 10% in the GE category, up 9% in the P-VP category ratings on a national don’t appear to be as severe as some are trying to suggest – just my opinion

Fears of irreversible crop damage to the Midwestern corn crop, specifically Iowa, continues to push corn prices higher. Continued strong exports adds to the buying. Open interest levels coming into today continue to decline suggesting that last week’s buying is mostly short covering from the spec sector. Weakness in the US dollar keeps US origin the most competitive vs. Brazil.

Interior cash corn markets don’t do a whole lot with one exception; Cedar Rapids, IA boosted its corn basis by 10 cents. This particular location was hit hard with last week’s windstorm. Other than this location it appears old crop cash corn is moving in response to the recent flat price rally as nearby spreads continue to widen. The midday Gulf posting eases from Friday night’s posting but overall remains firm.

Dec corn fills and closes above the July 10th break down gap. The gap was $3.43 ¾ and closed that day at $3.44 ¾, the same level we closed at today. Follow through buying will be dictated by tonight’s crop conditions in the states impacted by last week’s windstorm. The ProFarmer crop tour started today and so far they are finding relatively strong yield potential in areas of Ohio and S. Dakota.

Daily Support & Resistance – 8/18

Sept Corn: $3.25 – $3.38 

Dec Corn: $3.39 – $3.52

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.