Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed ¼ cent lower ($3.40 ½), Dec ¼ cent lower ($3.54 ¼) & March ¼ cent lower ($3.66)

Sept Chgo Ethanol closed unchanged ($1.285), Oct unchanged ($1.275)

Weekly Ethanol Grind as of 8/21- 931 K bpd vs. 926 week ago – Stocks – 20.4 million bbls vs. 20.3 week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-200 K T. expected – new crop vs. 700 K – 1.300 M T. expected

I did not see much new news today and the end result was a relatively quiet trade just below recent highs. The trade continues to mull over the probability of a lower yield and lower harvested acres on September 11th. From a technical point of view the trade is looking at the current price levels and comparing them to these levels seen back in early July. The rally in July stemmed from the lower acreage report and then gave way to the good growing conditions. Since then growing conditions have changed. In late July, early August, national corn conditions were rated at 72 GE, 21% Fair and 7% P-VP. Conditions as of last Sunday were 64% GE, 24% Fair and 12% P-VP. New crop demand is expected to stay solid with the potential for additional sales to China. The only item that I see on next crop report is the possibility of a higher carryin due to this past year’s exports falling short of projections as well as ethanol usage.

Daily Support & Resistance – 8/27

Dec Corn: $3.50 – $3.60 

March Corn: $3.62 – $3.72

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.