Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 3 ¾ cents higher ($3.44 ¼), Dec 4 ¼ cents higher ($3.58 ½) & March 3 ½ cents higher ($3.69 ½)

Sept Chgo Ethanol closed $0.006 cents a gallon lower ($1.279), Oct $0.006 lower ($1.269)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 270.4 K T. old crop vs. 0-200 K T. expected – 1.180 M T. new crop vs. 700 K – 1.300 M T. expected

USDA announces corn export sales – 747. K T. to China, 140 K T. to unknown

Solid weekly export sales as well as USDA daily announced sales keeps the corn market firm. I was a bit surprised the market wasn’t stronger than it was given the sharp strength seen in the wheat and soy markets. Then again the trade remains cognizant of the resistance levels just sitting overhead, $3.60 to $3.63. It was this level the market fell apart from in early July. As we move forward the trade will continue to mull over the idea of lower yields and lower harvested acres. The USDA will update production and supply-demand on Friday, Sept 11th.

The interior Midwestern corn basis continues to show a mixed look as some locations are reaching for corn while others are backing off. The Gulf stays steady with its recent strength. Sept corn loses to the Dec ahead of Monday’s 1st Notice Day. Dec forward spreads were tightening reflecting the day’s buying as well as the developing export program for the first quarter of the new marketing year that will begin next week.

The December corn chart continues to look strong as we probe the resistance that was established in early July. For what it’s worth the daily Dec corn chart is starting to develop a minor degree of overbought. If we do take out the July high ($3.63) I do see additional resistance closer to the $3.70 level. For the near term I’d be a bit skeptical chasing any further strength without some sort of a correction first.

Daily Support & Resistance – 8/28

Dec Corn: $3.51 – $3.63 

March Corn: $3.62 – $3.74

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.