Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 2 ½ cents higher ($3.48 ½), Dec 1 ½ cents lower ($3.57 ¾) & March 1 ¾ cents lower ($3.67 ½)

Sept Chgo Ethanol closed $0.090 cents a gallon lower ($1.379), Oct $0.041 lower ($1.320)

USDA announces corn export sales – 596.0 K T. sold to China

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 402.2 K T. vs. 800 K – 1.100 M T. expected

Weekly Corn Ratings – 62% GE (-2%) vs. 61% expected vs.58 % year ago – Dough Stage – 94% vs. 89% 5-year average – Dented – 63% vs. 56% 5-year average – Mature – 12% vs. 10% 5-year average

What’s bullish – the idea of a declining conditions leading to ideas of a yield cut along with a slight cut to harvested acres, continuing Chinese demand, a continuing decline in the value of the US Dollar and no deliveries against the Sept contract. What’s bearish – cash corn movement, disappointing weekly export inspections and short term technically overbought.

The end result of all this was a new high for the current rally to levels not seen since late March followed by 8 cents of profit-taking finally ending with minor losses on the day (Dec).

I’m not seeing a many changes to the interior Midwestern corn basis despite talk of cash movement. The Gulf’s midday posting does appear to be slightly easier. Spread involving the Sept contract were strong due to the lack of deliveries while Dec forward spreads ran fractionally mixed.

The Dec corn chart registers a minor downside reversal as new highs for the current rally were seen followed by a lower close. If the trade gets the decline in conditions it is looking for I think support should be realized somewhere between $3.53 and $3.50. Closes above today’s high should get us something closer to the $3.70 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 9/01

Dec Corn: $3.54 – $3.63 

March Corn: $3.64 – $3.73

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.