Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed ¼ cent higher ($3.49 ¾), Dec ¾ cent higher ($3.58 ¾) & March 1 ½ cents higher ($3.69 ¼)

Sept Chgo Ethanol closed unchanged ($1.365), Oct unchanged ($1.306)

Weekly Ethanol Grind – 922 K bpd vs. 931 K bpd week ago – Stocks – 20.9 million bbls vs. 20.4 million week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. -50+100 K T. expected – new crop vs. 1.500-2.500 M T. expected

Flat price corn moves into a consolidation phase as the trade weighs the lower private estimates for next Friday’s USDA production update. Don’t forget the USDA will reassess harvested acres for both corn and soybeans in Iowa due to the massive windstorm that through a few weeks ago. In early August the USDA suggested Iowa’s harvested corn acres at 13.550 million. The weekly ethanol grind was deemed disappointing as the grind eased and stocks were up. Since tomorrow is export sales day I have think the trade will take their cue from that report.

Interior Midwestern cash corn markets are all over the place. Areas where corn is approaching harvest basis levels back off while areas that are still a ways away from harvest are reaching for corn. The Gulf stays firm for corn given the large export program that has been developing. Nearby corn spreads had a soft look from the thought that we are still seeing cash old crop move.

As I mentioned earlier flat price corn has moved into a minor consolidation phase. $3.50 (Dec) is beginning to show up as support while resistance will be high we saw on Monday; call it $3.64-$3.65. Given the idea that the USDA will be reporting lower production data, higher exports, and a lower projected carryout downside corrections between now and then should be well received.

Daily Support & Resistance – 9/03

Dec Corn: $3.54 – $3.63 

March Corn: $3.65 – $3.73

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