Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 7 ¼ cents higher ($3.57 ¼), Dec 4 ¾ cents higher ($3.65) & March 4 ¼ cents higher ($3.75)

October Chgo Ethanol closed unchanged ($1.306), Nov unchanged ($1.307)

Weekly Ethanol Grind as of 9/04 – 941 K bpd vs. 922 K week ago – Stocks – 20.0 M bbls vs. 20.9 M week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. -100+100 K T. expected – new crop vs. 1.000-1.900 M T. expected

I’m not sure that I can say anything more than the trade just wants to be long going into tomorrow’s USDA report. The combination of lower production and increased demand is providing the impetus behind the buying. I won’t disagree with the idea that our carryout will come down noticeably but I think we’ll still have an ample carryout. The average guess for the carryout is roughly 2.4 billion bu. and that is till a big number. World data will also be in play as Ukraine production is expected to show a noticeable drawdown and they are US competition.

Interior cash markets are showing a firm bias as it seems processors are in competition with river locations that are involved with export. The nearby export slots are mostly steady while the Nov and Dec slots for export are firm. Corn spreads tightened reflecting the spec demand as well as the strong interior cash markets.

There is nothing bearish about the price action as Dec corn trades up to a level not seen since late March along with a close in similar regard. For what it is worth Dec corn closes over its 200-day MA for the first time dating back over one year. So here we have it – technical considerations are strong – will the USDA concur?

Daily Support & Resistance – 9/11

Dec Corn: $3.50 – $3.80 

March Corn: $3.60 – $3.90

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.