Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn expired 7 ½ cents lower ($3.57 ½), Dec closed 4 cent higher ($3.69 ½) & March ¾ cent higher ($3.79)

October Chgo Ethanol closed unchanged ($1.306), Nov unchanged ($1.307)

USDA announces Corn Export Sales – 140 K T. originally sold to unknown switched to China – 350 K T. sold to China – 106 K T. sold to Japan

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 878.9 K T. vs. 500-900 K T. expected

Weekly US Corn Crop Ratings & Progress – 60% GE (-1%) vs. 61% expected vs. 55% year ago – Dented – 89% vs. 82% 5-year average – Mature – 41% vs. 32% 5-year average – Harvested – 5% vs. 5% expected vs. 5% 5-year average

Another notable quantity of corn sold to China. Weekly export inspections were at the high end of expectations. Cash markets, both interior and for export, are strong. Trade talk suggests that we can still see cuts to harvested acres as well as yield. Despite all of this corn’s flat price struggled to extend the recent rally. My rationale for this sluggish looking price action is that harvest is right around the corner. Most weather forecasters are suggesting dry weather for the latter half of the month which is what the producer wants for harvest conditions.

Spreads are showing a tightening bias led by the Dec contract. We are entering the new crop marketing year with a front end loaded export market. The Gulf is clamoring for corn but unfortunately harvest is barely underway. We have another hurricane headed for NOLA and that adds to their quick needs.

Flat price trends continue to read higher but it is a bit spooky that the price action has gone quiet at its highs. Technical considerations suggest a minor degree of overbought. Going forward it will come down to the possibility of harvest pressure vs. continued export demand.

Daily Support & Resistance – 9/15

Dec Corn: $3.63 ½ – $3.74 

March Corn: $3.73 ½ – $3.83

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