Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 5 ¾ cents higher ($3.71 ¾), March 5 ¼ cents higher ($3.81) & July 4 ¾ cents higher ($3.89 ¾)

October Chgo Ethanol closed $0.011 cents a gallon lower ($1.295), Nov $0.011 cents lower ($1.296)

Weekly Ethanol Grind – 926 K bpd vs. 941 K bpd week ago – Stocks – 19.8 million bbls vs. 20.0 million week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 800 K – 1.900 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Strength in the soybean sector buoys corn prices to new highs for the current rally eclipsing the Monday highs by 1 cent. Overall the rationale for the rally has not changed – anticipation of a lower yield/lower carryout here in the US and a smaller corn crop in China prompting them to buy/import additional amounts of corn. The recent chatter about harvest pressure appears to be impacting the interior basis but after today’s futures’ price action the trade is looking past that.

Most interior cash corn markets have taken on a defensive look. This is in response to harvest just being around the corner as well as some old crop stocks getting cleaned out of their respective bins making room for the new crop. The Gulf eases ever so slightly. Corn spreads were firmer reflecting the upfront speculative interest.

The technical price action is impressive to say the least – new highs and new high closes for the ongoing rally. If once measure he recent two day correction Dec corn is now looking at $3.80. The best looking congestive type resistance is closer to the $3.90 level. Tomorrow is export sales day and the trade is looking for a relatively big number so I doubt we see much of a back-off overnight.

Daily Support & Resistance – 9/17

Dec Corn: $3.65 – $3.77

March Corn: $3.74 – $3.86

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.