Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 3 ½ cents higher ($3.75 ¼), March 3 cents higher ($3.84) & July 2 cents higher ($3.91 ¾)

October Chgo Ethanol closed $0.050 cents a gallon higher ($1.345), Nov $0.034 cents higher ($1.330)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 1.609 M T. old crop vs. 800 K – 1.900 M T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

USDA announces Corn Export Sales – 120 K T. sold to Unknown

Solid looking weekly export sales, another announced daily sale and a continued surge higher in soybeans all worked together to give us another round of new highs, new high closes, for the current rally. It does need to be noted that the rally in corn lacked the exuberance enjoyed in the wheat and soybean markets. I have to think this may have been a result of inter-market spreading; buying wheat and soybeans while selling corn against those purchases.

Most interior cash corn markets (basis) run steady to lower. I have to think the “lower” locations are looking at harvest beginning to get under way in their respective locales. I’m calling the Gulf steady but firm. Bull spreads were working showing just how front-end loaded is our export program. The bull spreads are also reflecting that the fund buyers are focusing on  the nearby.

As I said the other day nothing bearish about new highs and new high closes for the rally that started in early August. As I mentioned the other day $3.80 is the current upside target followed by something closer to $3.90. Tomorrow is Friday and harvest is just getting underway. Am I premature in the thought of some weekend pre-hedging?

Daily Support & Resistance – 9/18

Dec Corn: $3.70 – $3.80

March Corn: $3.79 – $3.89

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.