Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 8 ¾ cents lower ($3.69 ¾), March 8 ¼ cents lower ($3.79 ¼) & July 6 ¾ cents lower ($3.88 ¾)

October Chgo Ethanol closed $0.030 cents a gallon lower ($1.325), Nov $0.030 cents lower ($1.310)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 755.1 K T. vs. 650-900 K T. expected

Weekly US Corn Crop Rating & Progress – 61% GE (+1%) vs. 59% expected vs. 57% year ago – Harvested – 8% vs. 11% expected vs. 10% 5-year average – Mature – 59% vs. 49% 5-year average

Weekly export inspections were no big deal vs. expectations. The trade is expecting to see another slight downgrade in conditions. The current time frame for conditions usually declines as the corn plant itself is dying and looking ratty. It is my opinion that the developing harvest, strength in the US Dollar, beneficial moisture moving into Brazil for new crop planting and a technical overbought scenario all worked together for today’s sharp sell-off.

The interior corn basis continues to show a steady to lower bias. Locations that read lower are areas where harvest is happening. The midday posting at the Gulf is mostly steady with their recent strength. Corn spreads ran wider on the day mostly in response to the flat price selling. A sharp drop-off is noted from May to July. It is July when 2nd season corn comes online from Brazil. 1st season corn stays home while 2nd season corn goes to export.

Today’s noticeably lower close took care of the recent technical overbought. The $3.65 level (Dec) shows up as the first minor support level, better looking against $3.60. Harvest is just getting underway as barely 60% of the crop is rated as mature. Forecasts suggests clear sailing for the next week or so. Anecdotal yield results will go far in deciding what kind of yield cuts we can expect to see on the USDA October production update. Yield reports that I have heard of so far suggest “decent”. So far the bad areas are coming in as expected to slightly better than expected.

Daily Support & Resistance – 9/22

Dec Corn: $3.65 – $3.75

March Corn: $3.74 – $3.84

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