Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed ¾ cent lower ($3.68 ½), March 1 ¼ cents lower ($3.77 ½) & July 1 ¾ cents lower ($3.86 ½)

October Chgo Ethanol closed $0.015 cents a gallon lower ($1.310), Nov $0.015 cents lower ($1.290)

Weekly Ethanol Grind as of 9/18 – 906 K bpd vs. 926 K week ago – Stocks – 20.0 million bbls vs. 19.8 million week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 1.050-1.800 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Flat price corn continues in its recent consolidation/correction mode. Developing harvest in the US works to offset what appears to be firm World prices for corn. We still have the unknown as to US crop size as harvest is not yet far enough along. I’m reading some push/pull out of China as to the size of their corn crop. I’ve read reports that the typhoon impacted areas are not as bad off as originally thought while there are other reports that suggest the fields that were impacted are waterlogged creating quality issues.

The interior corn basis is all over the place. The Ohio River looks a shade easier, Decatur, IL is off by 13 cents, Cedar Rapids, IA is 4 cents better, Illinois River locations are a touch better and Linden, IN is off 5 cents (down 25 cents since Friday). The Gulf market for corn is firm due to the ongoing export demand.  Long story short; corn spreads saw fractionally tightening out to July.

$3.65 continues to be minor support for Dec corn followed by better looking support from $3.60 down to the mid-$3.50’s. $3.75 remains to be the initial resistance.  Tomorrow is export sales day and the trade is looking for decent to sizable numbers. The export sales’ results and what the US dollar is doing will dictate short term direction (the Dollar’s recent rally has been providing some price pressure). Friday’s trade may be dominated by thoughts of the ongoing harvest. In other words we could be in for some herky-jerky trade for the next number of days.

Daily Support & Resistance – 9/24

Dec Corn: $3.64 – $3.73 

March Corn: $3.73 – $3.82

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.