Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 6 cents lower ($3.89), March 5 ½ cents lower ($3.96 ¾) & July 5 ¾ cents lower ($4.03 ¾)

November Chgo Ethanol closed unchanged ($1.4.00), Dec unchanged ($1.379)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – Tomorrow

Weekly US Corn Crop Condition & Progress – Tomorrow

Its called profit taking following Friday’s USDA update. Because today was a Federal holiday there was no USDA news. Adding to today’s break was the sharp break in soybean prices. Harvest is believed to be rolling along but I’m not seeing much sold despite spreads easing. Attitudes are that going forward we could see further easing with this year’s corn yields as well as higher export demand numbers. It was interesting the USDA left demand unchanged especially with China. The rationale behind that move is that China has not raised its TRQ from 7.0 M T. Many believe that number will approach 12.0 M T. when all is said and done. Going forward focus will be on SA weather not only in Brazil but Argentina as well. The forecast for the La Nina weather scenario suggests a dryer bias for northern and southern Brazil and most of Argentina.

The interior Midwestern corn basis has a mixed look to it. The Ohio River is a shade better due to the remnants of Hurricane Delta moving into the area. Elsewhere corn basis levels run steady to lower. Overall the tone of the interior basis is defensive. The midday posting at the Gulf eases from the Friday night posting which was the highest to date. Spreads within the crop year ran mixed as the nearby Dec/March eases while the March forward ran fractionally better. The old crop/new crop spreads saw old crop losing.

The Sunday night session tried to give us a follow through rally but stumbled fractions of a cent shy of the psychological $4.00 mark. Once the day session started it was all about profit taking of the Friday rally. The funds are heavily long so the adage of buying the rumor selling the fact seems most appropriate. The question now is how much of downside retracement do we see? There is some very minor support at the $3.85-$3.84 level (Dec) but better looking down towards $3.80. Resistance will continue to be the $4.00 mark.

Daily Support & Resistance – 10/13

Dec Corn: $3.80 – $3.96 

March Corn: $3.88 – $4.04

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