Dec Corn closed 1 ½ cents lower ($4.17 ¾), March 1 ¾ cents lower ($4.18 ½) & July 1 cent lower ($4.19 ¼)
Nov Chgo Ethanol closed $0.047 cents a gallon higher ($1.567), Dec $0.015 cents higher ($1.510)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 636.2 K T. vs. 911.6 K T. last week
Weekly US Corn Crop Progress – Harvested – 72% vs. 73% expected vs. 56% 5-year average
Flat price corn consolidates just below last week’s highs. Early selling (down as much as 6 ½ cents) stemmed from a crashing wheat market as well as ideas the spec just may be too long given Friday’s data from the CFTC. The CFTC is suggesting that as of last Tuesday the “Large Speculator” increased his net long position by 65 K contracts to 240.2 K contracts. In the same time frame the “Managed Money” sector increased their net longs by 48 K contracts to 218.8 K contracts. Since last Tuesday the flat price another 8-10 cents. The early selling we saw did not last too long suggesting the appetite to own corn futures has yet to run its course.
Interior cash corn basis continues to firm at most locations. The worst case scenario is steady. The Gulf basis remains quite strong even though it did ease 1-2 cents at its midday posting. Nearby corn spreads continue to tighten out to May then they turn mixed. Dec/March did trade even money before easing.
I’m not seeing anything too bearish with today’s price action despite the easier close. The early break was well received and never challenged after the day’s low was established. Harvest appears to be in its final 25% and I’m not hearing of any storage shortages. I won’t discount the idea of some backing and filling over the near term. $4.05 (Dec) shows up as decent looking short term support.
Daily Support & Resistance – 10/27
Dec Corn: $4.10 – $4.22
March Corn: $4.11 – $4.23
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