Corn Commentary

storck

Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 14 ½ cents lower ($4.01 ½), March 12 ¼ cents lower ($4.04 ¼) & July 11 ½ cents lower ($4.05 ¾)

Nov Chgo Ethanol closed $0.080 cents a gallon lower ($1.470), Dec $0.080 cents lower ($1.413)

USDA announces Corn Export Sales – 207.0 K T. optional origin corn sold to S. Korea

Weekly Ethanol Grind (10/23)Production – 941 K bpd vs. 913 week ago – Stocks – 19.6 million bbls vs. 19.7 week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 700 K – 1.500 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Virus fears (fear of the unknown), Election fears (more fear of the unknown), Spec Trade too long, better weather in SA – all of this attributed to today’s 1,2, 3 get out!! As much as many were feeling it was time for a correction of the recent rally I don’t think anyone saw today’s decline to be this severe. Once the sell off started it was like a snowball going down a hill; it just got bigger and bigger. Some will call it the domino effect.

Interior cash corn markets are starting to wobble a bit from recent strength. The attitude is that today’s break may spark some selling from those that have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for signs of a top/correction. The Gulf market for corn slips a bit as exporters eye the latest Hurricane and its potential impact over the next few days. Corn spreads took a noticeable hit mostly from the flat price selling onslaught.

Back in the day when the funds were the primary driving factor (as they are now) when they went to get even/take profits one had to give them three days to accomplish this. Today was day one. Overnight there will be a lot of thought given to today’s break. Was it overdone? Have the fundamentals (demand) changed?  Personally I don’t think the underlying demand scenario has changed. The other day I was with the thought $4.00 was in the cards for a correction. After today I’m thinking the October 14th intra-day gap at $3.90 might be a bit more viable. Thursday is export sales day. That should provide us with an overnight bounce. After today’s performance bounces will be limited to the $4.10 level give or take a cent or two.

Daily Support & Resistance – 10/29

Dec Corn: $3.93 – $4.09

March Corn: $3.96 – $4.12 

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.