Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 4 ¼ cents higher ($4.05 ¼), March 5 ¼ cents higher ($4.11 ¼) & July 5 cents higher ($4.15 ½)

Nov Chgo Ethanol closed unchanged ($1.510), Dec $0.030 cent lower ($1.350)

Weekly Ethanol Grind (10/30) – 961 bpd vs. 941 week ago – Stocks – 19.7 million bbls vs. 19.6 week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 1.800-2.500 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Flat price corn had a two-sided trade for most of the day until late in the session a surge higher occurred on the coattails of the higher soybean market. The dry weather scenario that is currently affecting Brazil and Argentina will also have a negative impact on their respective corn crops. Couple this with some “risk-on” from the equity markets as well as the higher US dollar found few willing to press this market lower. Going forward the trade will naturally follow the weather developments in SA but also look to the USDA production/supply-demand update next Tuesday that many feel will feature higher production data.

Interior cash corn basis levels trade all over the map. It was just a couple of days ago Illinois river locations were getting blasted lower and now they are firming. The Ohio River was 10 cents with its basis. It seems the only locations that feature some consistency are the processors. Dec corn loses to March which I think is a result of early index rolling. The March forward spreads showed a bullish bias. The Gulf corn market continues to ease. I have to wonder if the Gulf can handle corn loadings since it is thought the soybean loading program has them at capacity.

SA weather concerns and the thought of a bullish report from the USDA should work to keep this market relatively firm for the next few days. Corn charts are trying to suggest the recent correction phase may have run its course. If true Dec corn is in line to test the resistance up towards the $4.15 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 11/05

Dec Corn: $3.90 – $4.05

March Corn: $3.94 – $4.09 

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