Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 15 ½ cents higher ($4.23), March 15 ¾ cents higher ($4.31) & July 13 ¾ cents higher ($4.35)

Dec Chgo Ethanol closed $0.047 cents a gallon higher ($1.447), Jan $0.047 higher ($1.432)

USDA announces Corn Export Sales – 130 K T. sold to S. Korea

USDA US Production/Supply-DemandYield – 175.8 bpa vs. 178.4 – Production – 14.507 billion bu. vs. 14.722 – Domestic Usage – 12.175 billion bu. vs. 12.250 – Exports – 2.650 billion bu. vs. 2.325 – US Carryout – 1.702 billion bu. vs. 2.167 – S-T-U – 11.48% vs. 14.86%

USDA World Production/Supply-DemandProduction – 1144.63 M T. vs. 1158.82 (US off 5.46 M T., Ukraine off 8.0 M T.) – World Carryout – 291.43 M T. vs. 300.45 M T.

The trade wanted to see a bullish USDA report and that’s what they got and then some. The numbers speak for themselves. The USDA finally got off the dime with Chinese corn imports; they went from 7.0 M T. to 13.0 M T. What’s next on the agenda – SA weather. We cannot afford a short crop down there. If you think we have high prices now wait to see what happens if they have a short crop. The latest forecasts call for scattered rains around, nothing that looks too general. Earlier this morning CONAB suggested Brazil would have a 104.9 M T. corn crop. The USDA is still sitting at 110.00 M T. this suggests the global corn market could be looking at another 5.0 M T. of demand. Where do you think that is going to come from?

Cash corn markets (basis) at interior river locations continue to move all over the place; up down all around. Processors, however, continue to stand with their basis bids. The midday posting at the Gulf continues to show a softening bias. Given today’s bullish corn report from the USDA bull spreading was the MO for the day against the new crop. Nearby spreads ran fractionally mixed on the day.

New highs, new high closes – nothing bearish about that. Given today’s rally short term inter-day and intra-day charts may read rather high based on technical considerations. Daily charts, however, do not read high at all using the same technical considerations. Weather consideration for SA will move to the forefront for daily considerations.

Daily Support & Resistance – 11/11

Dec Corn: $4.16 – $4.30 (?)

March Corn: $4.24 – $4.38 (?) 

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