Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 5 ½ cents higher ($4.25 ¾), March 3 ¾ cents higher ($4.30 ½) & July 3 cent higher ($4.33 ¾)

Dec Chgo Ethanol closed unchanged ($1.420), Jan unchanged ($1.380)

USDA announces Corn Export Sales – 140 K T. sold to Unknown

Weekly Ethanol GrindProduction – 962 bpd vs. 977 bpd previous week – Stocks – 20.2 million bbls vs. 20.2 million previous week

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 600 K – 1.000 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Bull spreading continues to lead flat price corn higher. Interior cash corn prices have stabilized/rebounded from last week’s sell off. The Gulf basis is also coming back. We continue to see modest corn export sales’ announcements; 195 K T. to Mexico yesterday and 140 K T. to unknown today. The trade continues to think Chinese interest is out there but so far we’re not getting any confirmation other than late winter, early spring Gulf basis improvement. Weekly export sales are out tomorrow and unless it’s my imagination expectations seem to be coming down  bit. I’m also wondering if Friday’s December option expiration is behind some of the Dec contract’s improvement on the spread. Weather in southern Brazil and Argentina (continuing with a dry bias) remains supportive.

Old crop corn charts continue to retrace last week’s sell off following the November 10th sharp rally. We’ve yet to match those highs while new crop prices are making new highs for the current rally. Last Tuesday’s highs may provide some resistance for the old crop contracts but overall I see nothing bearish in the current price action. Weather updates for SA and the weekly export sales report should dictate direction for the balance of the week.

Daily Support & Resistance – 11/19

March Corn: $4.22 – $4.36

July Corn: $4.25 – $4.39

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