May Corn closed 4 ¾ cents higher ($3.76 ¼), July 4 ½ cents higher ($3.85 ½) & Dec 3 ¼ cents higher ($3.98 ¾)
April Chgo Ethanol closed unchanged ($1.408) & May $0.010 cent higher ($1.411)
Weekly Corn Export Sales – 855.9 K T. old crop vs. 600 K – 1.000 M T. expected – 60.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-300 K T. expected
So – when was the last time the corn market was the action leader on the CBOT? Additional “flood” talk and rumors of “soon” Chinese buying boosts corn prices on Thursday. A representative of NOAA suggests flooding in the western Midwest could persist through the month of May. An analytical firm from China (JCI) is suggesting China may be in the market for “large” quantities of US corn possibly in early April (I have to think this is contingent on a trade deal being finalized). These two items prompted aggressive looking short covering from the spec sector. Buy stops were elected in old crop corn when prices eclipsed the past Sunday night, Monday highs. Weekly export sales were deemed as nothing special as they were just above midrange of expectations.
Not much changes with the interior corn market basis vs. yesterday. The processor still shows the best basis as the locations I track ran unchanged on the day. The interior river basis was mostly steady with one location easing by 1 cent. The Gulf continues to show a firm bias. Bull spreads in corn were working; thank you very much spec short covering. The July/Dec spread improves by 1 ¼ cents. It was just the other day this spread traded out to a 16 ½ cent carry; today it traded into 12 ¾.
After today’s price performance the short term inter-day corn charts read a bit high. Daily charts don’t read high at all. The Thursday night trade may feature some minor backing and filling but overall it looks like July corn is ready to see what the resistance level of $3.90 to $3.95 looks like. If the news that was circulating on Thursday continues (the flooding part of the conversation should) it will continue to support the corn market’s flat price. The flooding issue will create havoc with the 29th’s Prospective Planting report as these numbers are usually compiled earlier in the month of March. Any further price advances should have the funds falling all over themselves to cover their remaining existing shorts. Never underestimate the power of the funds; back in April of 2016 the funds bought nearly 140 K contracts of corn in just 7 business days
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/22
July Corn: $3.82 – $3.88 ($3.92) Dec Corn: $3.95 ½ – $4.01 ½ ($4.05 ½)
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.