Dec Corn closed 2 ½ cents higher ($4.19 ½), March 3 ½ cents higher ($4.24) & July 3 ¾ cents higher ($4.27 ¾)
Jan Chgo Ethanol closed unchanged ($1.320), Feb unchanged ($1.320)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 734.0 K T. vs. 750 K – 1.100 M T. expected
The Sunday night session brought us lower corn prices stemming from the idea that beneficial weather will continue to develop for the SA corn crop as well as the latest COT report suggesting the corn market is facing some speculative liquidation. During the middle of the night the US Dollar index saw a noticeable spike higher up as much as 50 pts higher (this rally failed to sustain itself). The day session had prices rallying out of the hole based on some technical considerations; last week’s low holding. The weekly corn export inspection number was not a factor in the daytime rally as it fell below expectations. Going forward it is my thought the spec trade wants to be long for Thursday’s Supply-Demand update which is expected to show another decline in the projected carryout. Both the Bloomberg and Reuters surveys suggest a decline of 11 million bu. from the November report. This report will not update supply/production as this will occur on the January report.
Interior cash corn markets (basis) were quiet on Monday. The midday posting at the Gulf saw steady bids and slightly higher offers. Old crop spreads ran steady to fractionally easier while old crop rebounds vs. the new crop. We have to remember that the US will continue to be the corn crop to the world as long as the US Dollar stays depressed.
As much as I would like to think the corn charts are trying to advertise a top reality says we are no worse than consolidation. The $4.14-$4.15 level for March corn is setting itself up as the downside swing point. Violation of that level would suggest something closer to the $4.00 level.
Daily Support & Resistance – 12/08
March Corn: $4.18 – $4.28
July Corn: $4.22 – $4.32
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