Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed ¼ cent lower ($4.83 ¾), July 1 cent higher ($4.82 ¼) & Dec ¼ cent lower ($4.34 ½)

Jan Chgo Ethanol closed $0.052 cents a gallon higher ($1.485), Feb $0.052 cents higher ($1.495)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 912.8 K T. vs. 750 K – 1.300 M T. expected

Flat price corn gaps/zooms higher Sunday night and then gives us a much needed correction during the day session. I have to think the daytime correction was mostly technical in nature (at the highs Sunday night the daily RSI was reading in the mid-high 80’s) as the corn market’s news remains mostly bullish. We still have concerns over the condition of the Argentine corn crop due to the ongoing dry bias down there. Corn exports out of Argentina are off the shelf until March 1st as previously announced last week. Next Tuesday, the 12th, the USDA will update last season’s production; lower numbers are expected. The demand side of the equation is expected to show an increase.

The interior cash corn market (basis) reads mixed as some locations are higher while others are lower. Since we are now in the new year expectations are that we will see some new cash corn sales. The Gulf reads easier at its midday posting. Corn spreads, March to July went easier on the day while old crop continues to gain on the new crop.

Given the corrective nature of today’s trade coupled with the sharp increase of spec longs in the latest Commitment of Traders’ report my bias is to see the corn market go into a consolidation/backing and filling phase for the next number days as we lead up to next Tuesday’s USDA report.

Daily Support & Resistance – 01/05

March Corn : $4.77 – $4.91

July Corn: $4.75 – $4.89

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