Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed 9 cents higher ($5.52), July 5 ¾ cents higher ($5.37) & Dec 4 cents higher ($4.51)

Weekly Ethanol Grind (1/29) – 936 K bpd vs. 933 K week ago – Stocks – 24.3 M bbls vs. 23.6 M week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 6.000-7.800 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-500 K T. expected

The daily trading pattern doesn’t change – beat it up early and then bring it back as the session progresses. This a classic bull market trading pattern. Bull spreading within the old crop was most noticeable as inverses continue to increase. I’m thinking the biggest supporting issue behind today’s trade is the anticipation of monster export sales tomorrow morning. For what it is worth today was the first day out of the last six we did not have a daily announced corn sale.

Interior river locations involved with export continue to see a steady to higher basis. The Gulf basis continues to edge higher. As I mentioned earlier bull spreads within the old crop had one of their best days as far as daily advances are concerned. It will be interesting to see how these spreads act come this Friday when the “big boy” index fund roll starts.

The recent few days of consolidation suggests the corn market is marking time for additional bull news. That news could be bigger than expected weekly export sales set for release tomorrow morning or the USDA Supply-Demand update scheduled for next Tuesday. The bottom to the price action I see nothing bearish to it. Remember that weekly closes clearly above the $5.50 level will signal another $0.50 – $1.00 run higher.

Daily Support & Resistance – 02/04

March Corn : $5.42 – $5.56 (?)

July Corn: $5.27 – $5.41 (?)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.