Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed 6 ½ cents higher ($5.41), July 7 cents higher ($5.27 ¾) & Dec 4 ½ cents higher ($4.52 ½)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 1.448 M T. old crop vs. 800 K – 1.400 M T. expected – 12.2 K T. new crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected

CONAB – Brazilian Corn Production – 105.5 M T. (23.6+80.00) vs. 102.3 M T. month ago vs. 109.0 M T. USDA

Flat price corn bounces higher today after trading down nearly 10 cents in the night session. An hour into the day session March corn traded as much as 12 cents higher. The balance of the session was spent trading between 3 cents higher and 8 cents higher. The news on the day was mixed; weekly export sales better than expected vs. Brazil raising their corn crop by 3.2 M T. (now 3.5 M T. shy of the USDA estimate). I have to think we also saw some technically inspired buying (due to the idea we were short term oversold). After all we’ve had a near 50 cents range from Tuesday’s high vs. today’s low.

Interior river locations saw some basis easing. The gulf shows some easing as well at its midday posting. Today was the last day of the index fund roll. March loses a half cent to the May, May/July fully steady and old crop with a minor bounce back from recent losses vs. the new crop.

From a technical perspective we bounced today due to a short term oversold. After today that short term oversold doesn’t exist anymore. Newly established resistance now sits at $5.50-$5.55. For the bullishly inclined we need to see the Friday close above $5.48 ½ (basis March) to prevent registering a weekly reversal. Closes below $5.36 ½ would suggest a “key reversal; outside week involving new contract highs and closing below the previous week’s low. Adding to Friday’s trade is a 3-day weekend ahead and the beginning of the Chinese New Year.

Daily Support & Resistance – 02/12

March Corn : $5.30 – $5.50

July Corn: $5.17 – $5.37

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