Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed ¾ cent higher ($5.53), July 2 ¼ cents higher ($5.40 ¼) & Dec 2 ¼ cents higher ($4.60)

Wednesday brought us a day of consolidation in the old crop and slight advancing in the new crop. Global export markets appeared quiet as China is on a weeklong holiday and many other countries on a religious holiday. Concerns still abound over the developing dryness in Argentine and the late planting of the second season corn crop in Brazil. It also seemed like focus was developing around the new crop ahead of the USDA’s annual outlook conference. The conference will be focusing on the upcoming new crop. Will the USDA deviate away from their past November acreage ideas in lieu of the sharp advances since then? In November the USDA suggested this year’s planted corn acreage would be 90.0 M. Recent trade polls are suggesting 92.9 M planted acres.

The interior Midwestern cash corn basis has a mixed look today. The Ohio River appears a bit better while Davenport, IA is a shade easier. The Gulf holds onto its recent strength touting upcoming logistical weather related problems. Bear spreads were working within the old crop and the new crop shoed the best flat price strength.

Old crop corn honors the technical looking resistance that was established after last week’s S&D report. We’ve been flagging higher for the past 3 and half days following the interim low that was established last Thursday. The suggested reversal that was registered on Tuesday, the 9th, remains intact. Closes below Friday’s low (5.36 ¾ March, 5.23 ¾ July) would go far in confirming we have a top in place. It is interesting to note that new crop corn has a much stronger looking picture vs. the old crop. The picture in Dec corn will turn sour looking with closes below $4.40.

Daily Support & Resistance – 02/18

March Corn : $5.45 – $5.59

July Corn: $5.32 – $5.46

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