Corn Commentary

storck

Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed 4 ½ cents lower ($5.54 ¾), July 7 ½ cents lower ($5.39 ¾) & Dec 2 ¾ cents lower ($4.74)

Weekly Ethanol Grind – 658 K bpd vs. 911 K week ago – Stocks – 22.8 M bbls vs. 24.3 M week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 453.2 K T. old crop vs. 500 K – 1/300 M T. expected – 145.9 K T. new crop vs. 50-300 K T. expected

Old crop corn (May) gets slammed in the early going (down as much as 16 cents). The best the market could do as the session progressed was to retrace about 10 cents of the early losses. Most of the break stemmed from disappointing weekly export sales. China remains noticeably absent in the US export market. Sharp weakness elsewhere in the Ag complex contributed to the break. New crop corn (Dec) losses were far less severe (down only 7 cents). The best it could retrace was 6 cents of the early losses. I’m told the recent dryness worries for the Argentine corn crop are shifting. The 2nd season Brazilian corn crop is still off to a slow start.

The interior Midwestern corn basis reads steady to easier. The Gulf for corn reads easier as well. The March/May corn spread is advertising no deliveries. The May forward spreads, however, are showing a widening bias on the recent lack of demand for old crop corn while the Dec shows only minor losses as it continues to fight for acres.

As I mentioned yesterday I’m not impressed with the recent up flagging motion in the old crop. Take out the $5.40 level (May) on a closing basis the overall old crop picture will not look too shiny. Dec corn has plenty of room to retrace its rally without damaging the underlying trend. First support is $4.60 followed by $4.50.

Daily Support & Resistance – 02/26

May Corn : $5.40 – $5.55

Dec Corn: $4.68 ($4.65) – $4.78

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