May Corn closed 5 ¼ cents higher ($3.73 ¾), July 4 ¾ cents higher ($3.83 ½) & Dec 4 cents higher ($3.98)
April Chgo Ethanol closed $0.007 cents a gallon lower ($1.338) & May $0.012 cents lower ($1.342)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.259 M T. vs. 700 K – 1.000 M T. expected – Cumulative 29.670 M T. vs. 24.568 M T. year ago – Target 60.33 M T.
Last Friday old crop corn finished 17 ½ cents lower – today, Monday we were able to get about 5 cents of it back – not much of a rejection as far as I’m concerned. Discussion on the day ranged from Friday’s break being overdone, a slow start to spring planting that may/can lead to an eventual lower planted acres and a resumption of the wishing and hoping that China and the US may come to a trade deal sooner vs. later. As far as the Stocks figure is concerned it is what it is; more corn than anticipated that will lead to a higher old crop carryout. The acreage figure is wide open to change given the flooding out west as well as what looks like a soggy start to April for a good portion of the Corn Belt.
The interior corn basis runs steady to slightly higher on the day. If the producer wasn’t selling any corn prior to Friday he sure isn’t selling any now. The Gulf basis slips a bit as we move into April. High water in selected areas of the riverways leading to the Gulf is still creating logistical problems. Corn spreads improve out to December mostly due to flat price short covering. Corn spreads, Dec forward lose out to Dec 2020.
Today’s minor looking bounce from Friday’s sharp sell-off does not instill much confidence in the idea that the current break is over; just my opinion. If the retracement continues points to watch for resistance are $3.75 and $3.78 (July). These represent half-way back points from Friday’s daily range and last week’s total trading range. As far as possible support levels are concerned I’m looking at $3.48 ½ on the July continuation weekly charts. As of this writing the biggest technical supportive issue is the size of spec short. To get the short to cover it will either take weather or an injection of new demand (can the US/China trade meeting this week supply that injection of demand?).
Daily Support & Resistance for 04/02
July Corn: $3.66 (?) – $3.75 Dec Corn: $3.84 – $3.93
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