Corn Commentary

storck

Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed 3 cents higher ($5.65), July 2 cents lower ($5.36) & Dec unchanged ($4.81 ½)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.544 M T. vs. 1.200-1.800 M T. expected

Lots of volatility to today’s trade in old crop corn; Sunday night we traded 9 cents higher and then Monday morning we traded 10 cents lower only to finish 1-2 cents higher. New crop corn featured another new contract high as it stays strong in an effort to attract as many acres as it can vs. soybeans but without the volatility featured in the old crop. The new crop corn price ration vs. new crop soybeans now stands at 2.6 in favor of soybeans. We saw a fair amount of push-pull features behind today’s trade. Early strength came from the ongoing concerns over the timely planting of Brazil’s 2nd season corn crop, dryness in Argentina and sharp strength in the energy sector. Daytime weakness came from a stronger US dollar, a weakening energy market and updated forecasts for Argentina calling for better moisture late this week and into next week. Weekly export inspections came in just above midrange of expectations. Tomorrow’s USDA Supply-Demand update is expected to show a decline of 31 M bu. in the projected carryout based on estimates from a traders’ poll.

The interior Midwestern corn basis continues to run steady to firm. Cash movement remains minimal as the producer is maintaining a bullish bias. The Gulf basis switched back to March and is sharply higher. We still are not seeing any deliveries vs. the March contract. May to Sept corn spreads ran mixed while old crop advances vs. the new crop.

Since February 11th May corn has traded in a range from roughly $5.25 to $5.60. The question now is whether or not can the USDA give us enough to pop out of this range. The crop concerns are just that as they really haven’t generated any new business for the US. Trade the range in old crop until proven different.

Daily Support & Resistance – 03/09

May Corn : $5.35 – $5.60 (?)

Dec Corn: $4.70 – $4.90 (?)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.