March Corn closed 7 ¾ cents higher ($5.55), July 4 cents higher ($5.38 ½) & Dec 3 ¼ cents higher ($4.83 ½)
Weekly Corn Export Sales – 395.5 K T. old crop vs. 400-750 K T. expected – 287.3 K T. new crop vs. 25-100 K T. expected
CONAB – Brazilian Corn Production – 108.068 M T. vs. 105.481 (February) vs. 109.0 M T. (USDA)
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) -suggests Argentine Corn production 45.0 M T. vs. 46.0 M T. previous vs. USDA 47.50 M T.
The trading range affair for old crop corn lives on. Despite weaker than expected weekly export sales recent weakness attracted a fair amount of overnight Asian interest. The Brazilian corn production estimate is a bit of a surprise given the late planting of their 2nd season corn crop. The idea there is that expanded acreage may offset the late planting. Only time will tell on that one. Later in the day the downgrade of the Argentine crop lent some support. Buying corn selling wheat was also noted.
The interior Midwestern cash corn market (basis) is steady with a firm undertone at river locations and steady to better from the processors. Ethanol margins are improving with the higher prices for the fuel. The Gulf basis appears to be steady at midday. Corn spreads ran steady to fractionally better within the current crop year while old edges higher vs. the new crop.
Going forward the old crop corn bulls will continue to monitor the developing Argentine corn crop as well as the recently planted 2nd season corn crop in Brazil. Argentina is forecasted to see noticeably better moisture late next week (will it be too little too late?). At the end of the month the USDA will give us their ideas on Quarterly Stocks. Will they have another curve ball in their pocket thinking back to January? I’m not looking for any grand scale moves prior to that report. In other words the trading affair for old crop corn should live on. New crop corn should be able to stay relatively firm until we see the planting intentions report at the end of the month.
Daily Support & Resistance – 03/12
May Corn : $5.30 – $5.47
Dec Corn: $4.75 – $4.90 (?)
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