Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed 11 ½ cents lower ($5.46 ½), July 12 ¼ cents lower ($5.30 ¼) & Dec 7 ½ cents lower ($4.68)

USDA announces Corn Export Sales – 696 K T. old crop sold to China – brings the 3-day total to 3.076 M T.

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 985.9 K T. old crop vs. 300-750 K T. expected – 240.9 K T. new crop vs. 50-400 K T. expected

Flat price corn takes a tumble today despite another announced sale to China. One rationale for the lack of price rally from the sale is that this business was done back in late January, early February and it was done by foreign firms with American affiliates and that allows them to sidestep the USDA standard for reporting. If true it can be speculated that the announcements were held off to coincide with the trade meeting in Alaska today between Chinese and US trade representatives. Another item of note – China is now talking about trying to get away from its reliance on corn and meal for feed; trying to find alternatives. I do know the crash in the energy sector weighed on the market as the ethanol sector has been trying to rebound in recent weeks. The short and simple technical version behind to day’s trade is “We threw bullish news at the market and it failed to respond – must not be as bullish as we think – time to take profits”.

The interior Midwestern cash market scenario has not changed as both processors and exporters are standing in for ownership. The midday posting at the Gulf is unchanged with last night as it holds on to its recent firming. The May/July corn spread continues to be firm even though it did sell off from a 19 cent inverse. July forward spreads did show a noticeable widening bias.

Today’s flat price sell off did rattle the cage of some of our recent buyers. The short and simple technical read is that the trading range affair in old crop continues. If today’s sell off continues watch the $5.40 level for interim support (May). The same can be said for the $4.60 level in Dec corn.

Daily Support & Resistance – 03/19

May Corn : $5.40 – $5.55

Dec Corn: $4.61 – $4.74

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