Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed 8 ¾ cents lower ($5.49), July 7 ¼ cents lower ($5.31 ½) & Dec 3 ½ cents lower ($4.68)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.962 M T. vs. 1.600-2.200 M T. expected

The inability to further Friday’s rally brings us lower corn prices on Monday. Weekly export inspections came in at mid-range of expectations. Given the amount of sales on the books weekly export inspections should remain stout going forward. Down in Brail corn exporters are getting nervous as there are reports of producers washing out previously made sales in an effort to capitalize on better basis levels vs. original levels. This places a lot of importance on the success of their 2nd season corn crop as it has been planted 2-3 weeks later than normal. In recent days Argentina has received beneficial moisture. The argument there has it come too little too late. Forecasts going forward suggest dry conditions redeveloping.

Interior cash corn basis levels continue to run steady to better from all participants (exporters and processors). The Gulf basis continues to read steady to firm. Despite the friendly looking basis levels corn spreads eased within the old crop and old crop ;loses to the new crop. If I had to guess US producers are playing the trading range seen in the old crop futures.

Old crop corn charts suggest the trading range market lives on. May corn continues to find resistance against the $5.60 level. Given the amount of old crop corn sales on the books that have yet to shipped suggests spreads should remain relatively firm as should the flat price. The Quarterly Corn Stocks scheduled for release next Wednesday should clear up the picture going forward meaning was the crop size as expected or was it lower vs. higher than expected. Given the shocker the USDA gave us back in January (lower than expected) no one knows for sure.

Daily Support & Resistance – 03/23

May Corn : $5.42 – $5.58

Dec Corn: $4.64 – $4.78

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.