Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed 5 ¾ cents lower ($5.46 ¾), July 4 ½ cents lower ($5.31 ¼) & Dec 5 ¼ cents lower ($4.61 ¼)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.695 M T. vs. 1.200-2.250 M T. expected

Today’s corn trade was mostly about profit taking/position squaring ahead of Wednesday’s USDA data, month end and quarter end. The CFTC latest COT report suggests the managed funds are the longest they have been since February of 2011. I think this put a bit of a fear factor into some of the recent longs. Weekly export inspections were a bit disappointing as they fell just shy of the midrange of expectations. It is being reported that 2nd season corn planting has hit 98% for the center-sought region of Brazil. It is being suggested that the March rains in Argentina did little to improve corn yields in Argentina; all it did was to stop the deterioration.

Processors continue to show a steady to strong basis. River locations do show much as they are holding with late last week’s soft tone. The gulf is also maintaining last week’s softer tone. Corn spreads ran a bit weaker in the old crop while the old crop/new crop spreads saw modest improvement.

I have to think the old crop flat price is marking time ahead of Wednesday’s Quarterly Stocks data (7.767 B Bu. is the average guess). I maintain my thought that $5.40 holds May corn ahead of this data. New crop corn should try and hold near the $4.60 level ahead of the planting figure (93.208 M acres are expected). Recent articles suggest the US producer continues to favor corn over soybeans despite the rally in soybeans. It’s my opinion the US producers likes to have as many bushels as possible and that means corn.

Daily Support & Resistance – 03/30

May Corn : $5.40 – $5.54

Dec Corn: $4.56 – $4.67

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