Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed 25 cents higher ($5.64 ¼), July 25 cents higher ($5.47 ½) & Dec 25 cents higher ($4.77 ½)

Weekly Ethanol Grind – 965 bpd vs. 922 week ago – Stocks – 21.1 M bbls vs. 21.8 week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 600 K – 1.200 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-300 K T. expected

USDA Corn Quarterly Stocks – 7.700 B bu. vs. 7.767 expected vs. 7.952 year ago

USDA Corn Prospective Plantings – 91.144 M acres vs. 93.208 expected vs. 90.819 year ago

Wow, Wow, Wow!!! The USDA gives us friendly looking data for old crop corn and outright bullish data for new crop corn. The move to limit up occurred within moments of when the data was released. The recent easing of prices acted as an accelerant; I want my long positions back. The Stocks report suggests old crop corn availability is going to stay relatively tight. This will put a lot of importance on the success for the Brazilian 2nd season corn crop. The plantings report was probably more bullish than the stocks report as it suggests next season’s carryout will be smaller vs. this season’s carryout. Needless to say synthetic calculations and spreads all suggest we are going to see higher prices tomorrow. Daily price limits will move to 40 cents. Old crop/new crop spreads should improve by a couple of cents while spreads within the new crop should show even greater strength. Planting season should be starting shortly in the Midwest; current ground conditions suggest this. If the planting season goes unimpeded one will have to think acres will rise. It’s my thought the June 30th report will feature additional acres but at this point how much? Competition vs. soybean plantings will remain quite strong.

Price chart configurations suggest we are starting a new leg higher. Just how much higher we go depends on how planting season goes. If planting goes without a hitch history suggests highs could be made sometime between mid-May and mid-June. Just what those highs are remains to be seen.

Daily Support & Resistance – 04/01

July Corn : ??? – ???

Dec Corn: ??? – ???

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