Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed 1 cent higher ($5.54 ¼), July 1 ¾ cents higher ($5.41) & Dec 5 ¼ cents lower ($4.83 ¼)

As far as I’m concerned the big feature of the day was the shift from buying new crop/selling old crop to buying old crop/selling new crop. My rationale behind the shift in spreading is the idea of good planting conditions going forward (nothing on the weather front suggests any noticeable delays at least so far) and the idea we could see an almost noticeable reduction in the old crop stocks carryout on Friday. Old crop, however, struggles to hold the nighttime flat price rally due to the massive fund/speculator net long positions.

The interior Midwestern corn basis continues to be relatively firm. The processor continues to compete with the exporter for origination. The Gulf basis is mostly steady. The March/May corn spread softens ahead of the index fund roll which begins this week. Old crop gains on the new crop in response the idea of clear planting which in turn could lead to additional acres.

$5.35 to $5.30 (July) should be viewed as support as this is where Wednesday’s rally took off from. New crop corn (Dec) is experiencing some backing and filling. First support should be the Wednesday to Thursday gap, $4.81 to $4.77. After that we’ll look at the mid-high $4.60’s. the pace of planting will dictate what happens in Dec corn going forward as no one really believes the acreage number the USDA gave us last week.

Daily Support & Resistance – 04/07

July Corn : $5.35 – $5.45

Dec Corn: $4.77 – $4.89

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