Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed 6 ¼ cents higher ($5.60 ½), July 5 cents higher ($5.46) & Dec 2 ¼ cents higher ($4.85 ½)

Weekly Ethanol Grind as of 4/02 – 975 K bpd vs. 965 K week ago – Stocks – 20.6 M bbls vs. 21.1 M week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 500-900 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-300 K T. expected

Strong cash markets, both processor and exporter, support old crop futures. Adding the idea the USDA will lower the old crop carryout on Friday suggests limited downside for the old crop corn market. Right now the only hurdle I see is the massive net long positions from the managed/spec sector. New crop goes along for the ride but to a much lesser degree as it continues to fight with new crop soybeans for additional acres. FYI – for longer term considerations – the USDA attaché to Brazil is suggesting their 2021/22 corn crop will approach 114 M T. For the current year estimates have been ranging from 105.0 to 110.0 M T.

As we move forward I don’t think the strong cash markets are going to go away at least not until we see what the 2nd season Brazilian corn crop looks like. That means spreads should stay strong and it will help the flat price. As I mentioned earlier the only hurdle here to a stronger flat price is the already massive long positions from the managed/spec sector. If we do see a strong spurt higher in the old crop flat price, similar to what we after the March 31st USDA report these long positions will take opportunity to lock in profits. I’m not bearish just a bit skeptical to chase spurts higher in the old crop. New crop corn has to stay alive as it fights with new crop soybeans to originate additional acres.

Daily Support & Resistance – 04/08

July Corn : $5.42 – $5.56

Dec Corn: $4.80 – $4.91

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